The old ideas I had, with legacy systems, weren't bad, but Triumph! gives some major improvements to them. The major one, of course, is the existence of multi-types of crap foot.
So here's the initial draft of the Goblin list, covering all independent goblin and orc tribes after the first age. This is not the Mordor or Dol Guldur list under Sauron; this list would be good for the Dwarven-Goblin war (Azanulbizar), or for the Battle of the Five Armies, or for the Goblin forces attacking from the Misty Mountains against Lorien or Imladris at the end of the Third Age (War of the Ring).
- Goblin Tribes. Invasion 3, Maneuver 3 (due to their bad-going ambushy tactics, the rarity of them being caught in a battlefield they didn't want, their common tactic of flank marching a force as in the Battle of the Five Armies, etc.) Hilly topography.
- General: Raider or Archer
- 1-2x Raider Goblin guards in mail; man-sized and vicious
- 1-4x (Beasts? Horsebow? Javelin Cavalry?) Wolf-riding goblins
- 0-1x Archer Elite bow-armed goblins with mail and spear
- 0-4x Bow Levy or Skirmisher Bowmen, possibly some in formed units
- 4-8x Skirmisher skirmishing bow-armed goblins
- 0-8x Light Foot Large goblins, nearly the size of a man
- 6-16x Rabble Goblin foot
- 0-6x Horde Goblin foot formed in close order units, often unwilling, mustered by whip-wielding officers
- 0-2x (Elephants? Elite Foot?) Trolls
- Wild Wargs (under their own Warg commanders, with their own language. Same rating problem as the wolf riding goblins above.
- Dwarves (but not the tribe of Durin)
Note two major areas of uncertainty (unlikely to be resolved for a long time, until we start working seriously on Fantasy Triumph, which won't be until this summer at an absolute minimum and maybe not for a year) is how to class wolf-riding goblins and trolls. Elephant works pretty well for Trolls -- very fierce, very aggressive, difficult to control, hard to kill. Warg riders is a bigger problem because nothing in straight-up Triumph! is both (a) mounted and (b) not slowed by difficult terrain. Beasts (an element type term from HotT) is used here to designate something with those two characteristics, but no assumptions should be made about it except that the Warg Riders should be fast, impetuous (follow up on wins), and not slowed or fighting at a minus for difficult terrain. It might be that something closer to Bad Horse (with a follow-up and no difficult terrain penalties) would be better.
The first thing I want you to see with the army above is no Warband or Warrior. Goblins can be vicious, but are small -- even large goblins would be smaller than a man. Rank and file goblins did not engage in impetuous behavior unless the enemy had broken, and weren't prone to wild charges. Great goblins in mail in the guard of Goblin Kings could conceivably be rated as Warband or Warrior except that's not their behavior in the Battle of the Five Armies, where they fought in ranks and slowly pushed back spearmen rather than breaking them quickly.
Second thing I want you to see is that this army will be HUGE. HUGE, I tell you. A massive force of Rabble and Bow Levy and Skirmishers. In fact, the Rabble can have Skirmish Screen, which I think will be HILARIOUS.
I'm really looking forward to fighting a Dwarf v. Goblin battle where there is a mass of Dwarven Elite Foot fighting against huge masses of Goblin Rabble. It will be AWESOME.
PS: if you are interested in the historical debate of rating Tolkein army lists, I recommend Luke Ueda-Sarson's website. Some of the information in it is dated and relating to DBM back in the 2000-2005 timeframe, so his representations in DBM speak (whichever version of DBM they played a decade or more ago) shouldn't be taken in isolation, but his commentary on the primary source material is invaluable, and was of major utility in constructing the draft list above.